Perspectives & Commentary

Avalon produces a variety of investment commentaries.

Our perspectives and quarterly commentary are issued throughout the year and cover a range of investment-related topics.

Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Quarterly Note

Second Quarter, 2018

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Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Monthly Note

April 2018

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Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Monthly Note

February 2018

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Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Read More

Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Read More

Quarterly Note

Second Quarter, 2017

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Monthly Note

May 2017

Throughout May, U.S. economic data remained moderately encouraging. Manufacturing growth, employment and personal consumption indictors were generally positive while inflation remained tepid. The U.S. economy as a whole appears to be growing at a modest pace, accelerating from a weak first quarter.

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Quarterly Note

First Quarter, 2017

From the start, 2017 has been an intriguing year. With another rate hike under its belt, the Federal Reserve has accelerated from its previous tentative pace and has even begun to talk about removing some of the final vestiges of the Great Recession—the assets purchased during its quantitative easing programs.

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Monthly Note

February 2017

In many ways, February was a month epitomizing the recent two-speed economy. Following the election, sentiment and survey measures surged, but the actual data trailed behind. Throughout February, the data remained in largely the same pattern.

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Quarterly Note

Fourth Quarter, 2016

Looking forward is always an interesting exercise, and 2017 does not disappoint on this front.

From President-elect Trump’s administration and its promise of less regulation, lower taxes, and more jobs to the implementation of the OPEC deal to cut oil supplies, the possibilities for interesting economic outcomes abound. Markets, both equity and bond, have already reacted to portions of the above possibilities.

Quarterly Note

Third Quarter, 2016

The US economy was not particularly inspiring in the third quarter, growing a mere 1.4%. Employment growth was strong, bouncing back from a weak second quarter (see Chart 1). Consumer spending drove second quarter GDP which will likely continue to be the case as business investment remains lackluster.

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Monthly Note

July 2016

After a weak May, the June jobs report showed the labor markets resiliency with strong internals as people returned to the labor force and received higher wages on a broad sector basis.  While creating 287,000 jobs is positive, it is likely that the trend will be closer to 150,000 as we progress through 2016.

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Monthly Note

May 2016

May was an interesting month, with US economic data firming and signs of stability in the global economy. While growth is not robust and the global economy is subject to significant risks including Brexit and tightening by the Federal Reserve, the global economy appears to have bounced back from a weak start to the year.

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Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Monthly Note

May 2018

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Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Quarterly Note

First Quarter, 2018

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Monthly Note

August 2017

The U.S. and global economy remained strong during August. While U.S. employment and GDP growth showed stable to accelerating growth, there were the now normal caveats of low inflation and slow wage growth.

Monthly Note

November 2017

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Quarterly Note

Third Quarter, 2017

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Monthly Note

July 2017

July proved to be an intriguing month for markets. The U.S. dollar slid to levels not seen since early 2016¹ even as the Federal Reserve signaled its intention to begin shrinking its balance sheet “relatively soon”.

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Monthly Note

April 2017

April proved to be a bit of a reality check for US economic indicators and data. US economic data disappointed relative to expectations following several months of surging expectations. The recent GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that the first quarter of 2017 grew at only a 0.7% pace.

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Monthly Note

January 2017

January was a month filled with change as the Trump Administration was inaugurated. Delivering on many campaign promises, President Trump’s first weeks in office were a whirlwind for investors. From immigration to regulation, the Administration was busy.

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Monthly Note

December 2016

The outlook for the US economy shifted following the election result. The market’s reaction was initially negative, but quickly reversed. Equities rose, interest rates moved higher, and the dollar strengthened as the GOP’s proposals surrounding prospects for fiscal spending and tax reform came into focus.

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Monthly Note

November 2016

The final quarter of the year began with minimal fanfare. Early in October, the employment report showed a mildly disappointing 156,000 jobs created in September. While the figure was lower than anticipated, workers continued to return to the labor force in droves with 440,000 coming back in the month alone.

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Monthly Note

August 2016

In August, US economic data was generally positive. At the beginning of the month, the strong July jobs report showed the US continued to generate employment, further negating May’s slow down. Yet US productivity is still lagging, and this places more pressure on employment gains to power US growth.

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Quarterly Note

Second Quarter, 2016

Brexit was certainly an unexpected development, and its consequences are likely to reverberate for the foreseeable future. Given the drawn out timeline for negotiating the departure, Brexit will keep the Federal Reserve from moving rates higher—at the very least, rate hikes are off the table in 2016.

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Avalon Perspectives

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October 14, 2019

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October 7, 2019

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September 30,  2019

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September 23,  2019

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September 9,  2019

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September 3,  2019

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August 26,  2019

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August 19,  2019

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August 12,  2019

Avalon Market Update

August 9,  2019

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August 5,  2019

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July 8,  2019

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July 1,  2019

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June 24, 2019

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June 17, 2019

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June 10, 2019

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June 3, 2019

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May 28, 2019

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May 20, 2019

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May 13, 2019

Avalon Report from Berkshire

Hathaway Annual Meeting

May 6, 2019

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May 6, 2019

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April 29, 2019

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April 22, 2019

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April 15, 2019

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April 8, 2019

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April 1, 2019

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March 25, 2019

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March 18, 2019

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March 11, 2019

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March 4, 2019

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February 25, 2019

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February 19, 2019

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February 11, 2019

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February 4, 2019

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

January 28, 2019

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January 22, 2019

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January 14, 2019

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

January 7, 2019

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

December 31, 2018

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

December 24, 2018

The Federal Reserve Raises Rates

December 18, 2018

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

December 17, 2018

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

December 10, 2018

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

December 3, 2018

Fed Chairman Powell's November 2018 Speech

November 28, 2018

Avalon Weekly Market Guide

November 26, 2018

Avalon Market Update

October 12, 2018

Yield Curve and Equity Returns

April 26, 2018

Low-Balling Inflation Puts the Fed at Risk

September 28, 2017

TPP Is Dead. What Now?

January 25, 2017

Quarterly and Monthly Notes

Quarterly Note

Third Quarter, 2019

Quarterly Note

Second Quarter, 2019

Quarterly Note

First Quarter, 2019

Yearly Outlook

2019

Quarterly Note

Third Quarter, 2018

Quarterly Note

Second Quarter, 2018

Monthly Note

May 2018

Monthly Note

April 2018

Quarterly Note

First Quarter,  2018

Monthly Note

February 2018

Yearly Outlook

2018

Monthly Note

November 2017

Quarterly Note

Third Quarter,  2017

Monthly Note

August 2017

Monthly Note

July 2017

Quarterly Note

Second Quarter,  2017

Monthly Note

May 2017

Monthly Note

April 2017

Quarterly Note

First Quarter, 2017

Monthly Note

February 2017

Monthly Note

January 2017

News | Press

Avalon Advisors, LLC Announces new Co-Chief Investment Officer

October 2, 2018

Avalon Advisors, LLC Named to 2018 Financial Times 300 Top Registered Investment Advisers

June 28, 2018

Avalon Advisors Announces San Antonio Expansion

December 21, 2016

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