Perspectives & Commentary

Avalon produces a variety of investment commentaries.

Our perspectives and quarterly commentary are issued throughout the year and cover a range of investment-related topics.

The below perspectives were written by Samuel Rines, Senior Economist and Portfolio Strategist at Avalon Advisors.

January 25, 2017

TPP Is Over. Now What?

The United States pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership this week. Once considered the most ambitious free-trade agreement in history, the TPP aimed to set the trajectory and tone of trade in Asia as a balance to a rising China. Now, there is an economic vacuum to fill, and—for countries looking for partners in growth—China is the obvious choice.

 

 

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December 9, 2016

The Possibilities of Trump's U.S.

Drawing from his business background, Trump may treat the U.S. as a business. We take a look at what “Trump Inc.” may look like.

  • The best-case scenario is phased in tax cuts, few trade disputes (if any), and regulatory reform with spending restraint elsewhere to minimize the increase to the budget deficit. This could generate in excess of 8% additional GDP.

 

 

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November 23, 2016

Reversal Rates Are the Next Big Challenge for Central Banks

Negative and ultra-low interest rates have become the norm for the developed world. The phrases “lower for longer” and “new normal” are now accepted as facts rather than predictions. But, how low is too low?

 

 

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October 13, 2016

The Good Ole Days Aren't Coming Back

The US economy has slowed, and the reasons for the sluggish growth cause heated arguments among market participants and economists alike. There are two outspoken camps: “the good ole days are coming back” and “this is normal.”

 

 

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August 24, 2016

The Federal Reserve's Anti-Volcker Inflation Revolt

There seems to be some consternation at central banks and their proxy think tanks around the world. Granted, monetary policy has not facilitated the recoveries we have grown accustomed to experiencing in the post-war era.

 

 

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August 18, 2016

Why the Fed Needs to Raise its Inflation Target

Once a year in late August, Federal Reserve policymakers travel to Jackson Hole, Wyoming to discuss their latest thoughts and papers on monetary policy.

 

 

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August 3, 2016

Is the Rest of the World Ditching America to Trade with China?

We’ve reached a critical juncture for the future of free trade, and America’s role in shaping it. But the United States is stepping away—or at the least threatening to step away—from the global economy at precisely the incorrect moment.

 

 

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Avalon Perspectives

TPP Is Dead. What Now?

January 25, 2017

The Possibilities of Trump's U.S.

December 9, 2016

Reversal Rates Are the Next Big Challenge for Central Banks

November 23, 2016

The Good Ole Days Aren't Coming Back

October 13, 2016

The Federal Reserve's Anti-Volcker Inflation Revolt

August 24, 2016

Why the Fed Needs to Raise its Inflation Target

August 18, 2016

Is the Rest of the World Ditching America to Trade with China?

August 3, 2016

Has the Federal Reserve Become Congress's Golden Goose?

July 20, 2016

The Fed Must Avoid the 'Credibility Trap'

June 21, 2016

Why the Fed Needs to Make a Policy Error

May 18, 2016

The Fed Faces Its 'Anti-Volcker Moment'

May 9, 2016

The Fed's Critical Global Mandate

April 29, 2016

Why the Federal Reserve Is All Talk

April 26, 2016

Is the Global Middle Class Really Here to Stay?

April 12, 2016

Quarterly and Monthly Notes

Monthly Note

February 2017

Monthly Note

January 2017

Quarterly Note

Fourth Quarter, 2016

Monthly Note

December 2016

Monthly Note

November 2016

Quarterly Note

Third Quarter, 2016

Monthly Note

August 2016

Monthly Note

July 2016

Quarterly Note

Second Quarter, 2016

Monthly Note

May 2016

News | Press

Avalon Advisors Announces San Antonio Expansion

December 21, 2016

Avalon Advisors Announcement

December 16, 2016

Sam Rines

April 11, 2016

Avalon Advisors Announcement

October 1, 2015

Viewpoints

China

March 1, 2014

Commentary

Fourth Quarter, 2015

Second Quarter, 2015

First Quarter, 2015

Fourth Quarter, 2014

Third Quarter, 2014

Second Quarter, 2014

July 20, 2016

Has the Federal Reserve Become Congress's Golden Goose?

Ever so quietly, the U.S. government has discovered an excellent new funding source for its projects—the U.S. Federal Reserve.

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June 21, 2016

The Fed Must Avoid the 'Credibility Trap'

The Federal Reserve should admit its balance sheet is not going to be reduced for the foreseeable future. Even the guidance of doing so after “normalization is well underway” is an irresponsible course of action.

 

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May 18, 2016

Why the Fed Needs to Make a Policy Error

One way or another, the Fed’s current policy path will be remembered as a comedy of errors. But what will matter more than the mistakes is whether or not the Fed maintains its credibility.

 

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May 9, 2016

The Fed Faces Its 'Anti-Volcker Moment'

Central Banks are frightened—and with good reason. Global inflation is stubbornly low and growth is not accelerating. Central banks appear to have exhausted their toolkits, and there is a growing consensus nothing will work.

 

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April 29, 2016

The Fed's Critical Global Mandate

The Fed’s reaction to “global uncertainties” seems to have gone far beyond a momentary pause in increasing interest rates. As a slew of Federal Reserve officials made clear following their March decision, global economic volatility poses risks to the U.S. recovery.

 

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April 26, 2016

Why the Federal Reserve Is All Talk

The U.S. Federal Reserve is rediscovering that talking—sometimes about doing nothing at all—can be a useful and powerful tool to transmit policy.

With a strong dollar and a slow global growth environment, the Fed was placed in a difficult spot at its March meeting.

 

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April 12, 2016

Is the Global Middle Class Really Here to Stay?

The rise of a global middle class has been one of globalization’s great victories, but the surge in income and consumption in the developing world may be more of a temporary anomaly than a long-term trajectory.

 

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